Posted by
BettyBoop on December 2, 2009 |
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EURUSD Survives Dubai Scare – What Next? By GoLearn Forex
EUR/USD:
Now that the EUR has safely breached resistance and survived the Dubai scare let’s take a look at where the EUR may be heading next. In order to project forward we must first look back at where the EUR has been. In the Graph below you can clearly see the period of complete market turmoil, commencing July of 2008. Over the next year notice the ensuing volatility represented by the white circle. The area in the red box shows a steadier trend emerging in June 2009. This is further evidenced by price cleanly riding up the 50 SMA in yellow.
INSERT CHART EUR1
I drew a Fibonacci Projection from the low indicated by Box A to the high indicated by Box B on the Graph below. These points are significant because they are inflection points that began the EUR rally. Additionally, they are located in the area of volatility circled in white above. Fibonacci makes sense and order from disorder and chaos. Therefore using these points for the basis of the projection is taking chaos or what we refer to as volatility and making order and sense from it which is the period of time represented by the red box above. View the results in the Graph below.
INSERT CHART EUR2
The Fibonacci’s Projections land on almost precisely the last 3 resistance levels and highlights past price action resistance points as well. The FIBO 138.2% level at 1.5048 was struck in October when the EUR finally broke the psychological 1.50 barrier. It was tested again in November before finally being taken out a few days ago.
So where is the EUR headed next? Based on the Fibonacci Projections we expect to meet resistance at 150%, which coincides with previous support levels as indicated by the 2 blue circles back in May and June of 2008. If the Fibonacci 150% level is taken out then the next point of resistance is the 161.8% or approximately 1.55. You can see the congestion at that level starting in May 2008 and lasting through June 2008.
Since the 50 SMA has been holding such strong support for this EUR move our new Long entries would trigger near the 50 SMA (buying on the dips). If we breach the 150% Fibonacci level then we would increase our Long and look to take profit near 1.55. However, in order to enter a short we would need to see an entire candle appear below the 50 SMA. This is an occurrence that has not taken place in months.
INSERT CHART EUR3
Good News Give the USD a Slide – by GoLearn Forex
The Dollar tumbled Tuesday falling just south of 74.30 on the DXY. The Kiwi was the big winner advancing 1.38% followed by the Pound at 1.03%. Meanwhile the JPY was the only major to lose ground to the Greenback as an emergency meeting of finance minister in Japan was convened to discuss the JPY’s continued strength.
The Dollar slide was triggered by a wave of positive economic data releases. On the home front, contracts to purchased existing homes jumped 3.7% unexpectedly. ISM figures remained above the critical 50 level. Couple the data releases with positive Black Friday and weekend sales as well as Dubai shoring up its debt facility payments and we had the ingredients for a massive Global Equity Market rally. It will be a quiet Wednesday for economic releases.
Oil finished the day up just over a dollar a barrel to 78.37. Gold closed at 1,196.60 up $20 from the day before. In intra-day trading Gold broke 1,200 before retracing, although futures are pointing up this morning so 1,200 should be no barrier today.
Upcoming Forex Events for December 2, 2009
EUR PPI (MoM) Forecast 0.10% Previous -0.40%
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Forecast -148.00K Previous -203.00K
USD Beige Book
AUD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 0.50% Previous -0.20%
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Tags: daily forex analysis, forex analysis
Posted by
BettyBoop on December 2, 2009 |
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A forex trading indicator is a definite instruction to sell or purchase a security at a specific price. For instance, the forex trading indicator can indicate you to purchase JPY/ GBP at 144.00 with 143.50 stop loss and 145.00 profit targets. A majority of the trading indicators are placed with the use of stop orders. Now you might wonder what this stop order is. A stop order is nothing but a command to the forex broker to sell or purchase a security when that particular price is reached. A number of indicators are being released few hours prior to the beginning of the trading session. This gives the forex trader time for setting up their specific trades.
These kinds of forex trading indicators are generally accessible in pairs- with a sell price and a purchase price along with the profit targets and stop loss orders. The expectation here is that either one of these two prices or their profit targets would strike that will finally result into a net profit. There are some trading indicators that are being released in real time and the forex trader is supposed to place the trades as they occur. With the help of the auto trading services the trading indicators are placed for the trader like the Rent a Signal and Zulu trade. These forex indicators are generally dependent on the automated systems of trading.
The forex trading indicators are often derived from technical analysis. The analysts make use of different tools like moving averages, pivot points, channels, resistance and support levels, and also complicated ways in order to try and predict the price. The accurate set of tools, rules and ways to decide the trades is known as a trading system, in terms of forex.
Generally, a number of the trading systems have an aspect of discretion in them, wherein the forex analysts make use of their capabilities and experiences to choose good trade. Others might be mechanical or automated. There are numerous organizations and even individuals offering online forex indicators. Most of these require a monthly membership charges, and some of them are very substantial. Most of the trading systems provide a performance track indicating their returns. You need to observe precisely this record of the service provider whose indicator you wish to purchase for your trade.
However, there are also free forex trading indicators available online for the ones who cannot afford or want to go for the paid ones. These free indicators are provided by the investment firms as well as the commercial indicator providers; with a hope that you will subscribe to their offers. Most of them are of good quality, whereas others are just for hit and miss use.
Finally, it all depends on the forex trader to implement the trades precisely in their account with high level of consistency. This will help them to attain better as well as the expected outcomes.
Tags: forex indicators, Forex Trading, forex trading indicators
Posted by
NigelGee on December 2, 2009 |
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Science plays a role everywhere and Forex is no exception. “Forex market dealings are based on science and predictions can be easily done with latest science and technology”… If someone tells you this way, mark them; they are either fraud or ignorant. Forex market and science are placed at a very long distance apart. Of course, I do not deny the fact that there are some complex calculative methods and base assumptions in science, which can make Forex look cooler than it actually is! When it comes to reality, the Forex market is never so.
Forex is based on intelligent moves. I have always insisted on playing simple. Well, simplicity is the matter of profit in Forex market and this should be acknowledged by everyone dealing with Forex. This sense of simplicity does not come with science, only because of the fact that what you see is the net result of a complex calculation altogether. It can be hard to disbelieve someone, even perhaps your broker, who says predictions can be easily done with science and technology in Forex trade. But, if you analyze the most successful profiting people in Forex, on their success story, they would not have analyzed all these scientific equipments, but would have analyzed the situation and the money behavior. This analysis itself can take you to a concluding fact that the most successful Forex traders are not blind followers of science; nor do they depend on science for any predictions and analysis.
If it were true that science can predict Forex market accurately, the percentage of the successful traders should have increased. But, unfortunately, right from the beginning, the successful trader’s rate is only 5%. Had science been that powerful in predicting, there should at least have been an increase in the percentage of these people. The statistics that they are not, clearly tells us that science has got nothing to do with the Forex predictions. Even if so, it is very negligible.
Ultimately, scientific predictions are the results of a complex analysis of situations of the similar kind. Now that seems pretty interesting since, in the above phase of the article, I have mentioned analysis is the key result of success. But, there exists a small issue in the analysis. With respect to the scientific approach, the analyses are carried out depending on the states the markets were in, in the previous situations. But, the present situation need not necessarily match the past ones. Money behavior changes from time to time; even minute by minute for that matter and that is why Forex is unpredictable.
A person can succeed in Forex if and only; he throws his emotions out of the market and plays the game with utter sincerity and simplicity.
Tags: Forex Trading, fx trade, Trading Forex
