Posted by
BettyBoop on November 24, 2009 |
No comments
Review Commodity-Linked Currencies by GoLearn Forex
AUD, NZD, CAD
Commodity Linked Currencies:
Most majors have been range bound for the last month and some even longer then that. If you play support and resistance then your entries points are relatively defined. However, what do you trade when handles are in between S & R?
The first assessments a trader should make are what currencies have recently retraced the most and why. Secondly a trader needs to assess current market conditions. Let’s apply these 2 rules. Through last week, the Commodity Linked Currencies were down the most versus the Greenback. The reason these pairs were down was due impart to Oil losing some momentum and a firming of the Dollar on risk aversion.
A brief assessment of current market conditions has the Dollar on its heels and Oil moving higher. Additionally, EUR & GBP are currently near resistance levels so unless one thinks the EUR or GBP will finally break resistance one will need to look elsewhere for the best trade.
INSERT CHART OIL
The AUD, NZD, and CAD are among the Commodity Linked Currencies. These pairs are currently the furthest away from resistance and therefore have the best risk to reward ratio. Couple that with a weak Dollar and overall strong commodity prices and you expect these pairs will move the most. Chart A above displays the movement in the price of Oil against the AUD, NZD and CAD. From this Chart you can see the positive correlation in price action. As Oil appreciates so do these currencies and vice versa.
The bar chart below displays percent gainers and loser against the Dollar for November 23rd. You will notice that the NZD, AUD and CAD are in the top 4. Add this analysis to your repertoire and it provides another venue for trading in these market conditions.
INSERT BAR CHART
When Will the Gold “Bubble” Burst by GoLearn Forex
Positive economic data released today pushed Global Equity Markets higher once again. In Canada, a better than expected print on Retails Sales moved the CAD higher as well as month over month figures that published at 1%. In addition, last month’s print was revised upwards as well.
In the U.S., Existing Home Sales month over month came in at 10.1% versus expectations of 2.3%. The DJIA moved ahead 132.71 points to 10,450.95 marking a high for year. All of this was bad news for the Greenback as the DXY dropped to 75.125. The CAD was the big gainer against the Dollar, up 1.4%.
Gold continues to make new highs striking 1,174 before settling back to close at 1,165.20, a $14.60 gain for the day. Some analyst are concerned about Gold’s appreciation and see it as the next asset bubble to crash, however, other say the move is justifiable and that higher Gold’s price will prevail. Oil clawed its way back from a recent lull to hit an intra-day high of 79.92, before closing the day at 77.68
Economic data releases due out tomorrow include GDP in the EUR zone as well as in the U.S. Case Schiller Home Price Index will print tomorrow as well as the U.S Consumer Confidence numbers. Today’s Home Sales print and the prior day’s Retail Sales figures in the U.S beat expectations. This may dampen the effects that the U.S Consumer Confidence figures and Case Schiller Price Index have. Normally these can be market movers but sales figures right now are in the driver’s seat.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 24, 2009
EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index Forecast 92.50 Previous 91.90
USD GDP (QoQ) Forecast 3.00% Previous 3.50%
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
AUD Construction Work Done (QoQ) Forecast 0.10% Previous -0.10%
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
Tags: daily forex analysis, forex analysis
Posted by
NigelGee on November 24, 2009 |
No comments
USD Dollar (USD)
The rally in Europe and Wall Street put pressure on the Dollar that fell across the board and rose only against the Yen. The existing home sales data that came at 6.1M, better than the 5.7M expected and comments about interest rate staying at low levels for some time fueled stocks. Dow Jones closed at the highest level in 13 months and ended the session with a gain of 1.29%. NASDAQ rose by 1.4% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.36%. Gold (XAU) posted new record highs above $1,170. Crude Oil jumped at the early trading hours but closed almost unchanged near the 77.5$ a barrel. Today, the GDP expected at 3% vs. 3.5% previously. The CB Consumer Confidence expected unchanged at 47.7. Also, later Federal Open Market Committee will be expected.
EURO (EUR)
The Euro strengthened against the Dollar trying to touch the 1.5 level but failed to breach above. The French PMI came out 54.2 worse than expected 55.4. The German Manufacturing PMI came out 52 better than expected 51.7. The Manufacturing PMI came out 51 worse than expected 51.4. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4832 and with a high of 1.5. Today, the German GDP expected unchanged at 0.7%. The German IFO Business Climate Index expected 92.5 vs. 91.9 previously. The Industrial New Orders expected at 0.6% vs. 2% previously.
EUR/USD – Last: 1.4948
|
Resistance
|
1.5010
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1.5050
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1.5090
|
|
Support
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1.4920
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1.4880
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1.4855
|
British Pound (GBP)
The Pound gained for the first time in 5 days against the Dollar following the rally in stocks as growing confidence in the global economic recovery is gathering pace. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6470 and with a high of 1.6647. Today, the BBA Mortgage Approvals expected 44K vs. 42.1K previously. The Business Investment expected -3.5% vs. -10.2% previously.
GBP/USD – Last: 1.6565
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Resistance
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1.6670
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1.6725
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1.6775
|
|
Support
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1.6585
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1.6535
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1.6500
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Japanese Yen (JPY)
The Yen fell across the board and was among the worst performers of the day. The pair continues to move at a very slow pace. Still, the pair has no clear cues for next trend development. USD/JPY traded with a low of 88.56 and with a high of 89.17. Today, the Bank of Japan Monthly Report is expected.
USD/JPY-Last: 88.88
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Resistance
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89.35
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89.50
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89.65
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|
Support
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88.90
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88.75
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88.50
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Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian Dollar currency jumped against the US Dollar as the Core Retail Sales came out 1.1% better than expected 0.4%. The rise in gold and crude oil raised the demand of currencies tied to commodity prices. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0538 and with a high of 1.0707. Today, No economic data expected.
USD/CAD – Last: 1.0590
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Resistance
|
1.0630
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1.0665
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1.0690
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|
Support
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1.0540
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1.0505
|
1.0475
|
Research by http://www.ufxbank.com
Tags: Daily Forex Review, forex review
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