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GoLearnForex Daily Technical Analysis

Posted by on October 28, 2009 | No comments

USD/CAD:

We have noted several times a formation we refer to as a Step pattern.  More commonly this is identified by Lower Lows and Lower Highs and vice versa.  We picked up on this pattern emerging on a 4 hours chart.  We identified the possible start of this pattern shortly after the BOC  publicly declared it’s sentiment for a “weak Canadian Dollar”.  We assured you that there would still be time to catch this move even if you could not trade the actual news.

We suggested that you wait for the Step to appear and buy on the dip which was a confirmation of our pattern formation. On the graph that it is depicted near the 3 and a yellow circle. The exit for taking PNL we had at 1.0660 a prior support resistance point.

INSERT GRAPH

EUR/USD:

The Squeeze Play.  We talked about this move where we are seemingly forced into a breakout.  In one of our earlier pieces we mentioned that our experience told us not to bet on the Squeeze Play, meaning trade against the direction of the existing trend.  I must admit we got carried away by the hoopla of crossing 1.50.

So the question you all should pose” is why in this case do you bet against the trend when one of the number one rules of technicians is never bet against the trend”.  The answer is based on the number two rule of technicians and that is; trade for the outcome that has the highest statistical probability of occurring.  To explain this further lets pose a question.  Why didn’t the market make this move a while ago similar to the recent strong moves in CHF  & AUD?

INSERT CHART

The answer is the Strength of the move was deteriorating in advance of 1.50.  Every trader had their   eye on  1.50, but obviously no one was a real buyer (for now) otherwise at 1.4830 when momentum started to stall we would have had traders continuing to bid up the EUR.  Lastly, when price action was negligible on the big cross of 1.50 that should have been another tip that there were no big orders lined up to continue buying north of 1.50.

We added  a MACD to indicate when the momentum started to wane. There are number of overbought tools on your platforms that you can use, from Stochastics and Oscillators to something as simple as the RSI.


Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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Daily Review

Posted by on October 28, 2009 | No comments

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar strengthen during yesterday trading session as Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in October for a second month. The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 47.7 from a revised 53.4 in September. NASDAQ decreased by 1.2% and Dow Jones slightly rose by 0.14%. Crude oil rose by 1% closing at 79.55$ a barrel after a volatile trading session as investors wait for the oil inventories today. Gold (XAU) weakened by 0.7% closed at 1035.4$ an ounce. Today, Core Durable Goods Orders are expected at 0.6% vs. -0.3% prior, New Home Sales are expected to rise from 429K to 443K.

EURO (EUR)

The Euro weakened versus the Dollar for the third day in a row on concern a rally in stocks and commodities can’t be sustained. M3 Money Supply came out worse than expected at 1.8% vs. 2.1% forecast. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4770 and with a high of 1.4926. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected at 0.1% vs.-0.4% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.4811

Resistance

1.4824

1.4927

1.5046

Support

1.4770

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound strengthened against the Dollar after the Confederation of British Industry\’s distributive trade\’s survey reported sales balance rose to +8 in October from +3 in September, better than economists\’ forecasts of a rise to +5. This is the fastest pace of growth since December 2007. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6285 and with a high of 1.6438. No economic data expected today.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.6358

Resistance

1.6438

1.6636

1.6693

Support

1.6286

1.6250

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Yen rose against the Dollar for the first time in 6 days as a plunge in Treasury yields after the record $44 billion auction in two-year notes made the Dollar less attractive to Japanese investors. USD/JPY traded with a low of 91.70 and with a high of 92.32. Retail sales came out at -1.4% vs. -1.5% forecast. No economic data expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 91.18

Resistance

91.57

92.19

92.32

Support

90.77

90.48

Canadian dollar (CAD)

The Canadian Dollar appreciated from a three-week low, gaining for the first time in four days amid speculation its decline was too big to be sustained after it reached a key technical level. Overall, USDCAD traded with a low of 1.0626 and with a high of 1.0716. Today, BOC Gov Carney Speaks.

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0664

Resistance

1.0696

1.0717

Support

1.0630

1.0500

1.0450

Research by http://www.ufxbank.com

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Curbing the Risks in Forex Trading

Posted by on October 28, 2009 | No comments

To foretell about the profit percentage one can make is pretty difficult. As it always vary. Hence to predict as to what can be the loss or gain is next to impossible. It can be difficult to tell what you should risk while trading your account. According some sources say no more than 2% or your account, others say no more than 3 or 4 % of your account.

The percentage should never be a factor to bother the investor but to understand the mindset behind the percentage is very important. As an investor you need to be pretty observant and conventional. It is always advisable not to risk more than 5% of the account, as usually the actual outcome is never higher than the real investment but even higher. It can be lower than expected but never that higher. If you find yourself that 5% is way too less to risk then stop and think again! You should also quite well estimate your motives in the Forex Trading. So it is very important to be cautious for a Forex Trader.

It is but natural for the Forex traders to think over and over before making a major investment. They are always sceptical about how much of their account they will be putting at stake. The account is what is going to keep them moving and keep them ticking daily. Traders who can afford and wants a short cut to gaining huge money in short span of time do put in large amount of their accounts at risk. For them obviously money is no asset. Too much greed is sure to be the cause of the downfall of many Forex traders in Forex trading. Not only in Forex Trading, otherwise also people should be extra cautious and not jump to conclusions.

Initially putting in a small investment to test with and then slowly graduating towards huge investments always help. A clever investor will always measure the pros and cons before spending a hefty amount of the account. For instance you can start with a petty 1-2% and then gradually adding on from there. So once you know the pattern of how the market works there is always chance to add more. But if a trader initially puts in large amount of money, he is sure to be doomed as there is no surety that it will always reap good benefits.

So starting with the minimal amount will ensure that all the money is taken care of. First gain some hands on knowledge about the proper trend of the trade you are dealing with. You can do this by toying with a dummy account. Here you can practice and gain knowledge about when to add money to the account. So once you think that you are confident about the trade than you can take your chance in the real business.

Many of the investors are in the constant hope that the market will furnish the funds necessary to start up a business. It is important for the individual to understand that the market is not always ready to provide that amount of money or the amount of money that they are actually looking for. A lot of traders think they will be able to get the market to give them certain amount money. The frame of mind should be such that you should be ready to accept what the market has to offer you. Advancing in this way will help the investor to have an extra edge in the market and he will surely be at an advantage. They will always be at an advantage if they step into the Forex market with such a mindset.

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